ECRI Recession Call 2012

... 9 Days Left

Are we in a new recession, as ECRI has forecast would be the case by the end of this month?

Month-to-month data is often noisy, and also delayed by a full month, and while the nonfarm payroll numbers have been a little soft the past three months, they have still been a long way away from contraction, which is ( Read more... )

By David DeGraw, Amped Status
Posted on September 18, 2011
Via Alternet

( Downward mobility, homelessness spreading to the middle class, 200,000 public employees laid off? Here are some frightening trends to keep an eye on. )

Badly missing forecasts for a net increase of around 60,000 to 120,000 jobs, the number came in at absolutely nada. In addition, earlier estimates for July & June were revised downward. Plus, under the hood more ominous datapoints abound, including an outright decline in Average Hours Worked, and an extremely soft Temp Hiring number, which points ( Read more... )

With now July data continuing a hideous trend of weakening we have seen, weakening really since last fall, and so with the economy now in an all-out technical "Growth Recession," what do you think its prospects are for the rest of the year?

This Week's Data Lowlights:

Calculated Risk
Consumer Sentiment declines sharply in July

The preliminary July ( Read more... )

• 1st quarter US GDP disappoints even more-so than first estimated
• Seven quarters of growth & still only modest improvement to large GDP gap
• Initial Unemployment Claims continue deteriorating, pointing to potential downside to May payrolls
• Housing double dip threatens to usher in a brand new economic death spiral
• QE3 on the table?

Despite the addition of another solid month of jobs gains in the private sector according to the medium to large sized businesses who were sampled, initial jobless benefits claims and also the official U3 Household Survey Unemployment Rate both rose significantly last month.

Initial Unemployment Claims (Source: Econoday.com)

( Read more... )

While much pain and suffering left in the wake of the Great Recession remains, the economy continues to mend. US Gross Domestic Product, after having slowed down during the spring and summer of this year, is back on a tear, and the risk of a technical double dip recession is now over; any further downturn would be considered a completely separate ( Read more... )

From The NYT
By JASON DePARLE
Published: April 3, 2010 ..so this is old news already..

WASHINGTON - With a client list that reads like a roster of Fortune 500 firms, a little-known company with an odd name, the Talx Corporation, has come to dominate a thriving industry: ( helping employers process - and fight - unemployment claims... )

From Econoday.com

Released on 8/19/2010 8:30:00 AM For wk8/14, 2010   PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual New Claims - Level484 K480 K465 K to 495 K500 K4-week Moving Average - Level473.5 K  482.5 K Highlights
Initial claims are ( Read more... )

By Glenn Greenwald

As we enter our ninth year of the War in Afghanistan with an escalated force, and continue to occupy Iraq indefinitely, and feed an endlessly growing Surveillance State, reports are emerging of the Deficit Commission hard at work planning how to cut Social Security, Medicare, and now even to freeze military pay.  But a ( Read more... )